First election forecast for the presidential election
July 13, 2012Emory University political scientist and election forecasting expert Alan Abramowitz put out his first election forecast for the presidential election in November. His model is revised this year to show the growing polarization among the electorate, which nearly cuts in half the incumbent advantage. It also weighs the president's approval rating and second quarter economic growth. If the economy grows by at least two percent, this model shows President Obama with a narrow victory.