BERNARD FRAGA, associate professor of political science, Emory College of Arts and Sciences

Call it the Turnout Gap — the tendency for election turnout among Black, Latinx and Asian American voters in the U.S. to lag behind their white counterparts.

Campaign strategies can play a critical role in targeting and mobilizing voters, influencing who votes and who stays at home, says Bernard Fraga. But this isn’t a business-as-usual year, and he sees Democrats working hard to shift that historic voting gap, especially in Southern and Southwestern states where minority voters “could play a key role in a path to victory.”

In this election, for the first time, Latinx voters will comprise the nation’s largest non-white voting bloc, which highlights their growing political influence in American politics, he says. And that means strategies to target this group — especially for registration drives and campaign messaging — could have an impact, particularly in states like Texas and Arizona.

A global pandemic has likely made it harder for both parties to make inroads with voters in minority communities, according to Fraga. And recent polling indicates ethnic minority voters are less likely to trust vote-by-mail options, preferring to vote early and in person, he says. Whether or not campaigns can counter their concerns remains to be seen, he adds.

Studies show that voters turn out at higher rates when they perceive that their votes really matter, Fraga notes. But while the nation’s ongoing protests for racial equity and social justice have undoubtedly changed American public opinion, he doesn’t anticipate they will sharply influence election outcomes — most voters have simply already made up their minds.

The 2018 midterm elections ushered in the nation’s most diverse electoral field to ever run, and Fraga sees that trend continuing this year — even in districts where historically candidates might not have stood a chance of winning.

“Beyond the presidential election, in the U.S. House and even state legislatures we’re seeing a tremendous growth in non-white or minority candidates running in districts where those groups don’t make up a majority of that population,” he says. “Candidates now feel they can win in places that in the past they were told it would be impossible.”

Bernard L. Fraga is author of “The Turnout Gap: Race, Ethnicity, and Political Inequality in a Diversifying America” (2018). Learn more about him here.