Nobel Prize-winning economist Peter Howitt says he can’t predict the impact of artificial intelligence and how disruptive it will be.
But he sums up his feelings about AI in two words: don’t panic.
During a standing-room-only lecture entitled “AI, Creative Destruction and the Labor Market” in the White Hall auditorium, the renowned professor emeritus from Brown University said we have faced potential job-destroying technological advances before.
Half of Americans worked on farms before the industrial revolution drove workers to factories in the late 19th century. The steam engine displaced manual transportation jobs, and the computer age saw the elimination of such careers as telephone switchboard operators and keypunch workers.
AI could have a similar effect, he said. But because it’s new, no one knows where the disruption will be.
“For students particularly, there are a lot of concerns about how artificial intelligence will affect their job prospects, and I can’t claim to tell you exactly what to expect on the job market,” Howitt told the crowd.
“But I do think that it helps to think clearly about this in the light of historical experience when other great general-purpose technologies have disrupted the world for a long time and yet ultimately led to great benefit for society,” he said.
Howitt’s visit to Emory was part of the Department of Economics’ Kafoglis Economics Nobel Laureate Lecture Series. Named after and founded by emeritus economics department faculty member Milton Kafoglis, the lecture’s past speakers have included James Heckman, Christopher Sims, David Card, Amartya Sen and Thomas Sargent. The event is funded through an endowment established by Kafoglis.
Howitt won the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences with French researcher Philippe Aghion for their work on “creative destruction” and endogenous growth theory.
“Creative destruction” reasons that innovation is constantly replacing old processes, leading to growth through new efficiencies and productivity while displacing outdated models. Endogenous growth theory focuses on business advancement through internal innovation and knowledge.
Harvard University economist Joseph Schumpeter popularized “creative destruction” in the early 1940s, Howitt said. In his book, “Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy,” Schumpeter described how “sustained economic growth comes from technological progress, which in turn comes from innovation bringing new products, new markets, new organizational processes, new ways,” Howitt told the audience.
“In the process, it renders old processes and ways of doing things obsolete,” Howitt said of Schumpeter’s “creative destruction” description. “And because of this, it doesn’t just create benefits for everybody, instead it causes disruption, it unsettles the existing order and leaves in its wake a lot of bankruptcies, plant closures and job losses because it’s bringing in the new and kicking out the old.”
Howitt said an example of this battle between the old and new is the conflict between renewable energy sources and fossil fuels.
Clean sources of energy are now the least expensive way of creating electricity without government subsidies, he said. But we continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels, in part because of the tremendous energy needs of AI, but also “because there are entrenched interests who would suffer a lot of ‘creative destruction’ if we replaced those fossil fuels with clean energy.”
Additionally, he said personal computers were not as efficient when they arrived in households in the 1980s as they are today. Like AI in 2026, personal computers were in their infancy then, and no one knew how they would fit into our lives.
“I remember when personal computers started coming into use, I’d go to lunch at the faculty club and where we used to talk about the latest (research) paper, we’d be talking about how you space paragraphs perfectly,” he said.
And, he said, there are clear signs of AI disruption in the marketplace. Jobs in customer service, computer coding and business software systems are increasingly at risk.
But AI won’t be as disruptive in positions where human empathy is foundational, such as health care, education, government and human resources, he said.
In the end, Howitt is more optimistic than pessimistic. While AI will force change, it could create opportunities in unexpected places.
“Optimism is important to maintain,” he said. “I just look around and see how human creativity has solved so many of humanity’s problems to make life so much more enjoyable for the vast majority of people. We have conquered diseases that used to ravage populations and provided opportunities for so many people to have fulfilling careers.”
Hashem Dezhbakhsh, Goodrich C. White Professor and chair of economics, said Howitt was the perfect speaker for the forum because of his research and scholarship as well as his approach to exploring complex topics.
“He talks in a way that all different groups of people, regardless of if you are an economist, can understand and relate to,” Dezhbakhsh said.
Howitt also gave the audience hope. While he made it clear that the road ahead will be tough both for universities and students, he said each will survive.
Dezhbakhsh agreed. “Sooner or later, things will sort out and AI will be basically supplementing what people do. There will be new innovations that open new opportunities and new jobs.”
Pedro Sant’Anna, associate professor of economics, says Howitt’s lecture helped bring perspective to AI at a time when the mere suggestion of its future impact can fray nerves.
“I liked it because it was optimistic,” Sant’Anna said. “I have two kinds of students right now: those who are very scared and those who are optimistic. I liked the lecture because he showed that things change and new technologies will be developed. But it’s up to us how we react to them.”
In addition to his speech, Howitt held meetings with small groups of students, faculty and staff. He also spoke during the Department of Economics’ annual banquet that same evening on “Innovation, Disruptive Technologies, and the Future of Universities,” which focused on AI’s effect on curriculum, instructional technology and competitiveness of universities.
Nedum Ebo, an Emory sophomore majoring in economics and human health, attended Howitt’s speech in White Hall. Like many students, he has concerns about what job market he will graduate into and how AI might shape that.
Ebo said that Howitt balanced the very complex topic in a way that left him feeling more confident about navigating a future dominated by AI.
“I definitely have some concerns,” Ebo said. “But the resounding message was that there is a lot of room and potential in AI to help you, especially at a school like Emory, where you can pair your skills with AI. As long as you’re intentional in learning and applying your skills, there will always be opportunities.”